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Игры Будущего 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydraloss 0:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 7 games
57%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Lil · 5 games
80%
Disruptor
Disruptor
HappyDyurara · 3 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 3 games
33%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
JANTER · 3 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
HappyDyurara · 3 games
33%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Cloud · 3 games
0%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Kami · 3 games
67%

Thunder Awaken

Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Mjz · 8 games
88%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Oscar · 5 games
20%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
ILICH- · 5 games
80%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Smiling Knight · 5 games
40%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Mjz · 4 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Genek · 4 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Mjz · 3 games
0%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Smiling Knight · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
356 picks · 303 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
331 picks · 511 bans
58%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
318 picks · 299 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
270 picks · 368 bans
53%
Magnus
Magnus
253 picks · 452 bans
55%
Luna
Luna
246 picks · 227 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
242 picks · 362 bans
50%
Techies
Techies
241 picks · 152 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:35
Hydra 49%Thunder Awaken 51%
The model gave 51% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 33:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistRetsu
55% · 117 games44% · 106 games
KunkkaDarkMago
Kunkka
Pangolier
Pangolierhina
57% · 242 games49% · 73 games
LifestealerLumière
Lifestealer
Pudge
Pudgekur0patbI4
48% · 50 games50% · 38 games
SlardarOscar
Slardar
Lion
Lionxsvampire
48% · 127 games46% · 307 games
EnchantressMjz
Enchantress
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenJANTER
54% · 122 games49% · 134 games
GrimstrokeGenek
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct15:24
Hydra 47%Thunder Awaken 53%
The model gave 53% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 29:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterRetsu
50% · 102 games58% · 150 games
MedusaLumière
Medusa
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerkur0patbI4
51% · 81 game53% · 348 games
Ember SpiritDarkMago
Ember Spirit
Kunkka
Kunkkahina
50% · 107 games50% · 230 games
Primal BeastOscar
Primal Beast
Rubick
Rubickxsvampire
41% · 457 games54% · 161 game
EnigmaMjz
Enigma
Batrider
BatriderJANTER
47% · 268 games48% · 126 games
GrimstrokeGenek
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 55%
Series resultThunder Awaken 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2