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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:1
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:1
UALEIKUMNIHAOloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Cloud · 14 games
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Worick · 11 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Worick · 10 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
Lil · 9 games
56%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
HappyDyurara · 8 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
HappyDyurara · 7 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
HappyDyurara · 7 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Lefitan · 7 games
57%

UALEIKUMNIHAO

Rubick
Rubick
Mary_y · 15 games
40%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
b1kA · 15 games
80%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Shergarat · 14 games
57%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Shergarat · 14 games
64%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Shergarat · 11 games
55%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Mary_y · 10 games
60%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
b1kA · 9 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Palantimos · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
542 picks · 581 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
460 picks · 229 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
417 picks · 754 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
370 picks · 666 bans
48%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
359 picks · 358 bans
48%
Morphling
Morphling
339 picks · 715 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
332 picks · 808 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
330 picks · 702 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 27%
Hero pool strength51% UALEIKUMNIHAO
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total80% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:36
Hydra 68%UALEIKUMNIHAO 32%
The model gave 68% on Hydra — the game was taken by UALEIKUMNIHAO in 43:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinKami
53% · 147 games50% · 52 games
Chaos KnightOtaker
Chaos Knight
Lycan
LycanCloud
53% · 85 games45% · 52 games
Centaur WarrunnerShergarat
Centaur Warrunner
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWorick
50% · 337 games54% · 329 games
PangolierChira JUNIOR
Pangolier
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeLil
36% · 29 games54% · 200 games
Nature's ProphetMary_y
Nature's Prophet
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightHappyDyurara
44% · 103 games51% · 68 games
Dark Willowb1kA
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct23:6
Hydra 68%UALEIKUMNIHAO 32%
The model gave 68% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 29:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenKami
57% · 66 games52% · 36 games
Phantom AssassinOtaker
Phantom Assassin
Brewmaster
BrewmasterCloud
46% · 21 game54% · 121 game
Dark SeerShergarat
Dark Seer
Pangolier
PangolierWorick
51% · 145 games52% · 104 games
Queen of PainChira JUNIOR
Queen of Pain
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightHappyDyurara
45% · 61 game47% · 76 games
Dark Willowb1kA
Dark Willow
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageLil
47% · 70 games45% · 26 games
Vengeful SpiritMary_y
Vengeful Spirit
Game 3prediction correct26:12
Hydra 68%UALEIKUMNIHAO 32%
The model gave 68% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 40:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenKami
55% · 109 games44% · 151 game
LycanShergarat
Lycan
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCloud
55% · 361 game32% · 94 games
Chaos KnightOtaker
Chaos Knight
Monkey King
Monkey KingWorick
63% · 206 games47% · 420 games
Ember SpiritChira JUNIOR
Ember Spirit
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageLil
53% · 164 games52% · 181 game
Keeper of the Lightb1kA
Keeper of the Light
Undying
UndyingHappyDyurara
48% · 364 games50% · 358 games
DisruptorMary_y
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 80%
Series resultHydra 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3