Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 1:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:0
V-Gamingloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 22 games
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 19 games
Banesignature
Zayac · 18 games
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 18 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 17 games
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 15 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Muka · 15 games
Chensignature
Zayac · 14 games
V-Gaming
Linaoften banned
hAze · 37 games
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 29 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 27 games
Invokeroften banned
hAze · 26 games
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 26 games
Weaversignature
ArrOw · 26 games
Queen of Painoften banned
hAze · 24 games
Disruptorsignature
Malady · 23 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
491 picks · 352 bans
Mars
444 picks · 647 bans
Queen of Pain
382 picks · 476 bans
Weaver
379 picks · 829 bans
Snapfire
369 picks · 192 bans
Kunkka
298 picks · 499 bans
Spirit Breaker
286 picks · 449 bans
Ember Spirit
262 picks · 352 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Hydra
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total54% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:25
Hydra 51%V-Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 44:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaKami
Templar AssassinTA2000
PuckAskold
Broodmotherlaise
UnderlordBlizzy
Sand KinghAze
DisruptorZayac
Weaverantoha
BaneMuka
Skywrath MageArrOw
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 54%
Series resultHydra 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1