Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
YNTloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Tusksignature
Lefitan · 23 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 12 games
Disruptorsignature
HappyDyurara · 12 games
Batridersignature
Worick · 10 games
Lycansignature
Cloud · 9 games
Silencersignature
HappyDyurara · 9 games
Invokersignature
Worick · 7 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lefitan · 7 games
YNT
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
504 picks · 337 bans
Tusk
485 picks · 476 bans
Tiny
475 picks · 415 bans
Treant Protector
350 picks · 402 bans
Mirana
346 picks · 340 bans
Snapfire
301 picks · 157 bans
Ember Spirit
273 picks · 682 bans
Pangolier
262 picks · 630 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 54%
Hero pool strength64% Hydra
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total77% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:7
Hydra 77%YNT 23%
The model gave 77% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 31:47.
Game 2prediction correct35:39
Hydra 77%YNT 23%
The model gave 77% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 1:02:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 77%
Series resultHydra 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2