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European Pro League Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydraloss 0:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Astral · 10 games
70%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 10 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
prblms · 8 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 8 games
25%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 7 games
43%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ethereal · 7 games
57%
Underlord
Underlord
Actor · 7 games
29%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Actor · 6 games
83%

Zero Tenacity

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
DaaD- · 18 games
61%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 15 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 14 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MikSa` · 13 games
31%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
LeBronDota · 12 games
58%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Nefrit · 12 games
67%
Lich
Lichsignature
LeBronDota · 10 games
70%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Stojkov · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
439 picks · 539 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
435 picks · 521 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
376 picks · 567 bans
47%
Muerta
Muerta
367 picks · 277 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
359 picks · 400 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
348 picks · 173 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
333 picks · 725 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
319 picks · 141 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Hydra 49%Zero Tenacity 51%
The model gave 51% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Game 2prediction correct
Hydra 49%Zero Tenacity 51%
The model gave 51% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 51%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2