Ice Cream Men vs Team Kinetix — prediction BSVЗО · Dota 2

BLAST Slam VIII. Закрытые отборочные · BO3

result vs prediction

ICIce Cream Menwin 2:0

series probability

75%25%

probability at match start · final 2:0

TKTeam Kinetixloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ice Cream Men

No games played over 6 months.

Team Kinetix

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

490 picks · 331 bans

51%

Bane

345 picks · 467 bans

54%

Clockwerk

333 picks · 502 bans

53%

Ember Spirit

333 picks · 506 bans

57%

Shadow Fiend

313 picks · 643 bans

53%

Tiny

282 picks · 311 bans

47%

Windranger

268 picks · 192 bans

48%

Centaur Warrunner

260 picks · 278 bans

53%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength50% Ice Cream Men

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total75% Ice Cream Men

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct28:3

Ice Cream Men 65%Team Kinetix 35%

The model gave 65% on Ice Cream Men — the game was taken by Ice Cream Men in 22:03.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo