iG Vitality vs Crocodile — prediction DPC2S—К 3 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3

result vs prediction

iG Vitalitywin 2:0

series probability

42%58%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Crocodileloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

iG Vitality

Banesignature

QYQX · 8 games

63%

Razoroften banned

ButterflyEffect · 8 games

50%

Ember Spiritoften banned

ButterflyEffect · 7 games

14%

Iooften banned

Dogf1ghts · 7 games

43%

Morphlingoften banned

ukiyo · 7 games

29%

Dark Willow

QYQX · 5 games

20%

Mirana

Dogf1ghts · 5 games

80%

Monkey Kingoften banned

Dogf1ghts · 5 games

20%

Crocodile

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Mars

466 picks · 642 bans

48%

Tiny

458 picks · 495 bans

50%

Bane

437 picks · 267 bans

56%

Sand King

425 picks · 562 bans

54%

Dragon Knight

367 picks · 426 bans

51%

Storm Spirit

363 picks · 610 bans

56%

Pangolier

353 picks · 538 bans

52%

Death Prophet

340 picks · 805 bans

54%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)37% vs 50%

Hero pool strength54% Crocodile

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total58% Crocodile

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed27:14

iG Vitality 45%Crocodile 55%

The model gave 55% on Crocodile — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 43:04.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo