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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
iG Vitalityloss 1:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Holy Grailwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

iG Vitality

Jakiro
Jakiro
Sj · 11 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ash · 10 games
60%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
ukiyo · 9 games
33%
Silencer
Silencer
Ponyo · 9 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Drink · 8 games
38%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ukiyo · 8 games
38%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
50%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Hara · 8 games
38%

Holy Grail

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
57%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Tzy · 7 games
29%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
omoxiloyi · 6 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Drink · 5 games
100%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
omoxiloyi · 5 games
20%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Tzy · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
727 picks · 536 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
596 picks · 515 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
559 picks · 1094 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
555 picks · 1245 bans
57%
Techies
Techies
531 picks · 583 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
471 picks · 935 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
467 picks · 1068 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
456 picks · 653 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 56%
Hero pool strength55% Holy Grail
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total74% Holy Grail
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:33
iG Vitality 34%Holy Grail 66%
The model gave 66% on Holy Grail — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 1:11:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinButterflyEffect
55% · 74 games51% · 148 games
BloodseekerSummer
Bloodseeker
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightukiyo
52% · 43 games50% · 113 games
Primal BeastGaN-
Primal Beast
Timbersaw
Timbersawmarblue
47% · 113 games45% · 127 games
PugnaDrink
Pugna
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerHara
49% · 82 games48% · 84 games
OracleSj
Oracle
Techies
TechiesPonyo
55% · 160 games
Game 2prediction correct7:24
iG Vitality 33%Holy Grail 67%
The model gave 67% on Holy Grail — the game was taken by Holy Grail in 50:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeukiyo
42% · 182 games68% · 144 games
MedusaSummer
Medusa
Windranger
WindrangerButterflyEffect
45% · 124 games52% · 252 games
Ember SpiritGaN-
Ember Spirit
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakermarblue
50% · 123 games50% · 129 games
PugnaDrink
Pugna
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonHara
48% · 93 games51% · 230 games
SilencerSj
Silencer
Undying
UndyingPonyo
38% · 233 games
Game 3prediction correct23:34
iG Vitality 35%Holy Grail 65%
The model gave 65% on Holy Grail — the game was taken by Holy Grail in 48:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
Slarkukiyo
50% · 88 games60% · 106 games
MedusaSummer
Medusa
Sniper
SniperButterflyEffect
50% · 41 game54% · 156 games
Void SpiritGaN-
Void Spirit
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakermarblue
42% · 123 games53% · 133 games
ClockwerkDrink
Clockwerk
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonHara
41% · 87 games53% · 56 games
OracleSj
Oracle
Pugna
PugnaPonyo
45% · 112 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHoly Grail · 74%
Series resultHoly Grail 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3