OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO2
result vs prediction
iG Vitalityloss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Lilgunwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
iG Vitality
Clinkzoften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
ukiyo · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 1 game
Shadow Fiend
ButterflyEffect · 1 game
Slarkoften banned
ukiyo · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 1 game
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
378 picks · 170 bans
Hoodwink
348 picks · 125 bans
Lina
262 picks · 438 bans
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 522 bans
Dragon Knight
253 picks · 340 bans
Luna
251 picks · 347 bans
Winter Wyvern
250 picks · 246 bans
Mars
236 picks · 402 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 31%
Hero pool strength51% Lilgun
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:25
iG Vitality 46%Lilgun 54%
The model gave 54% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Lilgun in 22:02.
Game 2prediction correct17:39
iG Vitality 46%Lilgun 54%
The model gave 54% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Lilgun in 37:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 54%
Series resultLilgun 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2