Huya Winter Invitational 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
iG Vitalityloss 1:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Neon Esportsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
iG Vitality
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
ukiyo · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 6 games
Iooften banned
Dogf1ghts · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
Clinkz
ukiyo · 4 games
Slarkoften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
Neon Esports
Lion
NARMAN · 20 games
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 16 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Tims · 16 games
Nature's Prophet
Skem · 15 games
Dark Seersignature
Enryu · 14 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Unknown- · 14 games
Mirana
NARMAN · 13 games
Invokersignature
Yopaj · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
372 picks · 546 bans
Bane
344 picks · 260 bans
Snapfire
337 picks · 207 bans
Weaver
328 picks · 714 bans
Monkey King
251 picks · 749 bans
Io
241 picks · 568 bans
Tidehunter
240 picks · 377 bans
Disruptor
238 picks · 156 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 29%
Hero pool strength59% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:32
iG Vitality 46%Neon Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 31:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingukiyo
MedusaPalos
PuckButterflyEffect
Queen of PainMamangDaya
Monkey KingDogf1ghts
Spirit BreakerEnryu
Dark WillowQYQX
WeaverNARMAN
Game 2prediction missed32:24
iG Vitality 45%Neon Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 37:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingukiyo
Wraith KingPalos
PuckButterflyEffect
KunkkaMamangDaya
OracleQYQX
Spirit BreakerEnryu
Monkey KingDogf1ghts
MiranaNARMAN
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 51%
Accuracy by game1 of 2