FMWH Dota2 Championship Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
iG Vitalityloss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Phoenix Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
iG Vitality
Tusk
Ponlo · 2 games
Grimstroke
QYQX · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
doodle · 1 game
Marsoften banned
7e · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
doodle · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Deth · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
Ponlo · 1 game
Troll Warlordoften banned
Deth · 1 game
Phoenix Gaming
Elder Titan
zzq · 6 games
Marsoften banned
Molasses · 5 games
Mirana
pLAnet · 5 games
Centaur Warrunner
Molasses · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
pLAnet · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Xwy · 3 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Mercury · 3 games
Clockwerk
zzq · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
308 picks · 630 bans
Void Spirit
288 picks · 360 bans
Mars
250 picks · 430 bans
Earth Spirit
235 picks · 188 bans
Rubick
205 picks · 107 bans
Nyx Assassin
200 picks · 608 bans
Keeper of the Light
196 picks · 391 bans
Phoenix
195 picks · 228 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Phoenix Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Phoenix Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoritePhoenix Gaming · 59%
Series resultPhoenix Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect