OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO3
result vs prediction
iG Vitalityloss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ragdollwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
iG Vitality
Clinkzoften banned
ukiyo · 4 games
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
Windranger
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Slarkoften banned
ukiyo · 2 games
Ragdoll
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
352 picks · 179 bans
Hoodwink
287 picks · 105 bans
Mars
271 picks · 419 bans
Lina
266 picks · 534 bans
Pangolier
265 picks · 363 bans
Luna
238 picks · 337 bans
Shadow Demon
233 picks · 241 bans
Nyx Assassin
220 picks · 471 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)20% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% Ragdoll
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Ragdoll
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteRagdoll · 62%
Series resultRagdoll 0:2
Series predictioncorrect