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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
iG Vitalityloss 1:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Supernovawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

iG Vitality

Jakiro
Jakiro
Sj · 12 games
58%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ukiyo · 12 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ash · 10 games
70%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Sj · 10 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
ukiyo · 9 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Drink · 8 games
38%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ash · 7 games
29%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Drink · 7 games
86%

Supernova

Rubick
Rubick
sheep · 9 games
44%
Tusk
Tusksignature
sheep · 6 games
83%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sheep · 5 games
40%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
sheep · 5 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenix
sheep · 4 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
sheep · 3 games
0%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
sheep · 3 games
33%
Mirana
Mirana
sheep · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
719 picks · 618 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
598 picks · 524 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
505 picks · 980 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
501 picks · 1257 bans
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
446 picks · 1121 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
441 picks · 897 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
419 picks · 222 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
415 picks · 596 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% iG Vitality
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total55% Supernova
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:20
iG Vitality 46%Supernova 54%
The model gave 54% on Supernova — the game was taken by Supernova in 30:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeukiyo
40% · 39 games52% · 200 games
Techiessheep
Techies
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainButterflyEffect
60% · 16 games
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakermarblue
40% · 39 games
Batrider
BatriderHara
55% · 54 games
Silencer
SilencerPonyo
46% · 52 games
Game 2prediction missed29:19
iG Vitality 49%Supernova 51%
The model gave 51% on Supernova — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 44:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddonukiyo
50% · 8 games45% · 143 games
Phoenixsheep
Phoenix
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainButterflyEffect
67% · 17 games
Beastmaster
Beastmastermarblue
52% · 38 games
Rubick
RubickHara
49% · 74 games
Oracle
OraclePonyo
50% · 6 games
Game 3prediction missed6:21
iG Vitality 50%Supernova 50%
The model gave 50% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by Supernova in 18:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmastermarblue
60% · 160 games44% · 310 games
Rubicksheep
Rubick
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
60% · 79 games
Abaddon
Abaddonukiyo
50% · 24 games
Windranger
WindrangerHara
65% · 27 games
Oracle
OraclePonyo
46% · 20 games
Model check result
Model favoriteSupernova · 55%
Series resultSupernova 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3