Huya Winter Invitational 2021 · BO1
result vs prediction
iG Vitalityloss 0:1series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Asterwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
iG Vitality
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
ukiyo · 8 games
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 8 games
Iooften banned
Dogf1ghts · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
Clinkz
ukiyo · 4 games
Puckoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
Dark Willow
QYQX · 3 games
Team Aster
Lichsignature
LaNm · 11 games
Windranger
BoBoKa · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 10 games
Storm Spiritsignature
White丶Album · 10 games
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 9 games
Lunaoften banned
Monet · 9 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Xxs · 8 games
Chensignature
LaNm · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
369 picks · 545 bans
Bane
344 picks · 257 bans
Snapfire
340 picks · 204 bans
Weaver
323 picks · 718 bans
Monkey King
245 picks · 740 bans
Disruptor
242 picks · 156 bans
Io
239 picks · 572 bans
Tidehunter
236 picks · 378 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 24%
Hero pool strength57% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:43
iG Vitality 30%Team Aster 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 48:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingukiyo
Templar AssassinOri
Void SpiritButterflyEffect
Queen of PainMonet
Monkey KingDogf1ghts
PangolierXxs
OracleQYQX
Spirit BreakerBoBoKa
49% · 209 games
GrimstrokeFantasy
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 81%
Series resultTeam Aster 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1