Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
iG Vitalitywin 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TPTeam Piratesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
iG Vitality
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
Clinkzoften banned
ukiyo · 4 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
ukiyo · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
Windranger
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Slarkoften banned
ukiyo · 2 games
Team Pirates
Shadow Shaman
Yyh_ · 1 game
Snapfire
Yyh_ · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
267 picks · 386 bans
Tidehunter
267 picks · 391 bans
Monkey King
260 picks · 620 bans
Bane
239 picks · 173 bans
Lina
218 picks · 470 bans
Lion
213 picks · 104 bans
Void Spirit
211 picks · 263 bans
Weaver
209 picks · 398 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)18% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% iG Vitality
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% iG Vitality
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:12
iG Vitality 52%Team Pirates 48%
The model gave 52% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 28:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slarkukiyo
LionYyh_
Death ProphetButterflyEffect
IoDogf1ghts
BaneQYQX
Game 2prediction correct48:16
iG Vitality 50%Team Pirates 50%
The model gave 50% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 39:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopterukiyo
DisruptorYyh_
Death ProphetButterflyEffect
IoDogf1ghts
TuskQYQX
Model check result
Model favoriteiG Vitality · 52%
Series resultiG Vitality 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2