Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
iG Vitalityloss 0:2series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Zerowin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
iG Vitality
Jakiro
Sj · 11 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Ash · 10 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
ukiyo · 9 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ukiyo · 9 games
Disruptor
Drink · 8 games
Undyingoften banned
Sj · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ash · 7 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
Team Zero
Enchantressoften banned
zzq · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iceice · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
7e · 3 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Cty · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
BEYOND · 2 games
Doomoften banned
BEYOND · 2 games
Lion
iceice · 2 games
Rubick
iceice · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
753 picks · 631 bans
Disruptor
608 picks · 536 bans
Doom
536 picks · 1064 bans
Beastmaster
534 picks · 1329 bans
Ember Spirit
463 picks · 1175 bans
Pangolier
460 picks · 955 bans
Techies
457 picks · 481 bans
Enchantress
440 picks · 633 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 80%
Hero pool strength62% Team Zero
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Team Zero
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:48
iG Vitality 34%Team Zero 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 57:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladeukiyo
MorphlingCty
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
Pangolier7e
Dark Seermarblue
Spirit Breakerzzq
PugnaHara
BrewmasterBEYOND
SilencerPonyo
Batridericeice
Game 2prediction correct25:51
iG Vitality 32%Team Zero 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 44:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingukiyo
WindrangerCty
MagnusButterflyEffect
VisageBEYOND
Brewmastermarblue
Earth Spirit7e
Dark WillowHara
Spirit Breakerzzq
SilencerPonyo
Elder Titaniceice
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Zero · 78%
Series resultTeam Zero 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2