Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
iG Vitalityloss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TLThe Last Darkwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
iG Vitality
Jakiro
Sj · 12 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ukiyo · 12 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Ash · 10 games
Undyingoften banned
Sj · 10 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
ukiyo · 9 games
Disruptor
Drink · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ash · 7 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
The Last Dark
Queen of Painoften banned
Echo · 4 games
Alchemistoften banned
poyoyo · 3 games
Silenceroften banned
strawberry · 3 games
Doomoften banned
Shining · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
Echo · 2 games
Techiesoften banned
strawberry · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
poyoyo · 1 game
Axeoften banned
Shining · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
727 picks · 623 bans
Disruptor
599 picks · 529 bans
Doom
515 picks · 996 bans
Beastmaster
513 picks · 1271 bans
Ember Spirit
450 picks · 1139 bans
Pangolier
444 picks · 914 bans
Mirana
425 picks · 224 bans
Enchantress
418 picks · 607 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% The Last Dark
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% The Last Dark
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:22
iG Vitality 44%The Last Dark 56%
The model gave 56% on The Last Dark — the game was taken by The Last Dark in 42:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusaukiyo
Morphlingpoyoyo
Timbersawmarblue
BeastmasterShining
TinyButterflyEffect
Earth SpiritEcho
TechiesHara
Skywrath Magestrawberry
EnchantressPonyo
Game 2prediction correct14:23
iG Vitality 45%The Last Dark 55%
The model gave 55% on The Last Dark — the game was taken by The Last Dark in 31:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void SpiritButterflyEffect
Morphlingpoyoyo
Faceless Voidukiyo
BeastmasterShining
Magnusmarblue
Vengeful SpiritEcho
TechiesPonyo
Windrangerstrawberry
Dark WillowHara
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Last Dark · 62%
Series resultThe Last Dark 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2