The International 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ignitewin 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TT Gameloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ignite
No games played over 6 months.
TT Game
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
623 picks · 404 bans
Rubick
526 picks · 290 bans
Phoenix
484 picks · 581 bans
Tiny
470 picks · 388 bans
Pangolier
427 picks · 602 bans
Puck
345 picks · 982 bans
Tusk
342 picks · 289 bans
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 508 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% Ignite
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% Ignite
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:8
Ignite 69%TT Game 31%
The model gave 69% on Ignite — the game was taken by Ignite in 23:48.
Game 2prediction correct36:10
Ignite 69%TT Game 31%
The model gave 69% on Ignite — the game was taken by Ignite in 21:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteIgnite · 69%
Series resultIgnite 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2