Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
IHC Esportswin 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HHorizonloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
IHC Esports
Mirana
Se · 4 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
423 · 2 games
Tiny
ace12 · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Sancity · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
423 · 1 game
Rikioften banned
Sancity · 1 game
Rubick
ace12 · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
Sancity · 1 game
Horizon
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
916 picks · 620 bans
Tiny
644 picks · 449 bans
Nature's Prophet
543 picks · 872 bans
Treant Protector
539 picks · 545 bans
Tusk
538 picks · 438 bans
Snapfire
486 picks · 332 bans
Death Prophet
471 picks · 1024 bans
Clockwerk
443 picks · 322 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 50%
Hero pool strength61% IHC Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% IHC Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:35
IHC Esports 70%Horizon 30%
The model gave 70% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 53:17.
Game 2prediction correct39:29
IHC Esports 70%Horizon 30%
The model gave 70% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 45:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteIHC Esports · 70%
Series resultIHC Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2