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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
IHC Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TNC Predatorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IHC Esports

Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
ace12 · 11 games
36%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
eleven · 10 games
70%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Se · 9 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
eleven · 5 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
ace12 · 5 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
ace12 · 5 games
40%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
eleven · 5 games
20%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
eleven · 4 games
50%

TNC Predator

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Mjz · 26 games
69%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Palos · 18 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 18 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gabbi · 17 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Gabbi · 16 games
63%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Gabbi · 16 games
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Abed · 16 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Mjz · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
418 picks · 618 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
370 picks · 391 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
369 picks · 143 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
361 picks · 469 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
319 picks · 578 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
318 picks · 341 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
317 picks · 159 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
315 picks · 651 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 71%
Hero pool strength56% TNC Predator
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total70% TNC Predator
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:35
IHC Esports 42%TNC Predator 58%
The model gave 58% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 26:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doomeleven
53% · 225 games49% · 165 games
GyrocopterPalos
Gyrocopter
Weaver
WeaverFortuneSoul
56% · 212 games43% · 181 game
TinyYowe
Tiny
Marci
MarciHishge
51% · 85 games50% · 212 games
RubickJing
Rubick
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeace12
55% · 229 games41% · 193 games
PhoenixKuku
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct23:29
IHC Esports 39%TNC Predator 61%
The model gave 61% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 30:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaFortuneSoul
61% · 87 games45% · 178 games
MorphlingPalos
Morphling
Mars
Marseleven
49% · 199 games54% · 122 games
LeshracYowe
Leshrac
Weaver
WeaverHishge
52% · 176 games48% · 270 games
RubickJing
Rubick
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenace12
52% · 303 games41% · 195 games
PhoenixKuku
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteTNC Predator · 70%
Series resultTNC Predator 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2