The International 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ilbirs eSportsloss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
4ikibamboniwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ilbirs eSports
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 8 games
Void Spirit
niche · 8 games
Beastmasteroften banned
egx · 7 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 7 games
Windranger
Ponlo · 7 games
Underlordoften banned
Norma · 6 games
Doomoften banned
fortniteMan · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 5 games
4ikibamboni
Tusk
waveformn · 5 games
Dark Willow
ani-san · 3 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
yowaai · 3 games
Axeoften banned
Ankou · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
yowaai · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Ethereal · 2 games
Techies
waveformn · 2 games
Viperoften banned
Ethereal · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
624 picks · 411 bans
Rubick
533 picks · 298 bans
Phoenix
484 picks · 583 bans
Tiny
469 picks · 393 bans
Pangolier
428 picks · 616 bans
Puck
349 picks · 991 bans
Tusk
343 picks · 291 bans
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 521 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 67%
Hero pool strength58% 4ikibamboni
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% Ilbirs eSports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:29
Ilbirs eSports 51%4ikibamboni 49%
The model gave 51% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by 4ikibamboni in 27:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolierniche
Drow Rangeryowaai
Alchemistchempik
SnapfireEthereal
DoomNefrit
SlardarAnkou
RubickPonlo
Hoodwinkwaveformn
BaneVaniLLl
Ogre Magiani-san
Game 2prediction missed16:28
Ilbirs eSports 50%4ikibamboni 50%
The model gave 50% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by 4ikibamboni in 38:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophoschempik
Muertayowaai
Viperniche
Keeper of the LightEthereal
EnigmaNefrit
BatriderAnkou
VenomancerVaniLLl
Dark Willowani-san
TuskPonlo
Axewaveformn
Model check result
Model favoriteIlbirs eSports · 51%
Series result4ikibamboni 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2