EPL Masters I. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Ilbirs eSportswin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dandelionsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ilbirs eSports
Beastmasteroften banned
egx · 9 games
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 9 games
Tinyoften banned
chempik · 9 games
Void Spirit
niche · 8 games
Doomoften banned
Nefrit · 7 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 7 games
Windranger
Ponlo · 7 games
Dandelions
Rubick
SsaSpartan · 3 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Antares · 2 games
Dark Seeroften banned
ChodΣX · 2 games
Lina
Mo13ei · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Palantimos · 1 game
Broodmother
rizhiywisper · 1 game
Chen
Kidaro · 1 game
Dazzle
PERDAN4IK · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
520 picks · 369 bans
Rubick
420 picks · 254 bans
Tiny
362 picks · 364 bans
Clockwerk
337 picks · 636 bans
Pangolier
326 picks · 423 bans
Windranger
324 picks · 234 bans
Storm Spirit
291 picks · 313 bans
Phoenix
286 picks · 219 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% Dandelions
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Ilbirs eSports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct53:14
Ilbirs eSports 52%Dandelions 48%
The model gave 52% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports in 40:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spiritniche
Drow RangerNande
AlchemistKami
Storm Spiritxn丶e
LargoNorma
Legion CommanderChodΣX
Dark WillowZayac
LionGilgir
HoodwinkPonlo
TuskSsaSpartan
Game 2prediction correct41:13
Ilbirs eSports 53%Dandelions 47%
The model gave 53% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports in 24:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaKami
KezNande
AxeNorma
Snapfirexn丶e
Ember Spiritniche
PhoenixChodΣX
Dark WillowZayac
Nyx AssassinGilgir
BanePonlo
Winter WyvernSsaSpartan
Model check result
Model favoriteIlbirs eSports · 54%
Series resultIlbirs eSports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2