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European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ilbirs eSportswin 2:0
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ilbirs eSports

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
egx · 1 game
0%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Askold · 1 game
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
xsvampire · 1 game
0%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
egx · 1 game
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 1 game
0%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
xsvampire · 1 game
0%
Underlord
Underlord
Norma · 1 game
0%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
egx · 1 game
100%

Natus Vincere Junior

Snapfire
Snapfire
Gothic- · 11 games
27%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
Gothic- · 10 games
20%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Hyugadoto · 9 games
11%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Gothic- · 8 games
13%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
rubikon155 · 8 games
13%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gbc · 7 games
0%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Hyugadoto · 7 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
gbc · 7 games
14%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
597 picks · 929 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
540 picks · 422 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
495 picks · 640 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
491 picks · 654 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
436 picks · 937 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
391 picks · 651 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
387 picks · 530 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
378 picks · 231 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 22%
Hero pool strength63% Ilbirs eSports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:16
Ilbirs eSports 48%Natus Vincere Junior 52%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports in 38:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidegx
58% · 55 games43% · 203 games
Dragon KnightonLiTaL
Dragon Knight
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNorma
49% · 112 gameslittle data
Visagekrol9ash
Visage
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkxsvampire
45% · 248 games53% · 102 games
TinyGothic-
Tiny
52% · 110 games
RingmasterHyugadoto
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed47:20
Ilbirs eSports 48%Natus Vincere Junior 52%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports in 37:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangeregx
49% · 183 games56% · 67 games
Shadow FiendonLiTaL
Shadow Fiend
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNorma
51% · 104 games46% · 86 games
Batriderkrol9ash
Batrider
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidxsvampire
53% · 63 games48% · 172 games
TuskHyugadoto
Tusk
43% · 25 games
LionGothic-
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 62%
Series resultIlbirs eSports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2