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European Pro League Season 38 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ilbirs eSportswin 2:1
series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Power Rangersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ilbirs eSports

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 8 games
38%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
niche · 8 games
38%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
egx · 7 games
43%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 7 games
29%
Windranger
Windranger
Ponlo · 7 games
43%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Nefrit · 6 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 6 games
33%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Norma · 6 games
17%

Power Rangers

Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 36 games
58%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 35 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Immersion · 29 games
52%
Chen
Chensignature
Hduo · 28 games
68%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 27 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
Immersion · 22 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Immersion · 21 game
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 20 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
635 picks · 432 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
550 picks · 308 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
490 picks · 589 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
467 picks · 399 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
434 picks · 641 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
355 picks · 1019 bans
57%
Tusk
Tusk
346 picks · 306 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
344 picks · 538 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 62%
Hero pool strength60% Power Rangers
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total87% Power Rangers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:35
Ilbirs eSports 25%Power Rangers 75%
The model gave 75% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports in 1:17:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritniche
49% · 241 game50% · 412 games
Queen of Painnicky`cool
Queen of Pain
Tiny
Tinychempik
45% · 226 games54% · 38 games
NecrophosAlberkaaa
Necrophos
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNefrit
56% · 207 games55% · 72 games
MagnusTA2000
Magnus
Enchantress
Enchantressasdekor_r
50% · 126 games44% · 142 games
SilencerHduo
Silencer
Ringmaster
RingmasterPonlo
57% · 107 games43% · 243 games
ClockwerkImmersion
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct9:30
Ilbirs eSports 28%Power Rangers 72%
The model gave 72% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 25:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Snapfire
Snapfireniche
43% · 241 game51% · 269 games
Shadow FiendTA2000
Shadow Fiend
Medusa
Medusachempik
51% · 81 game49% · 349 games
SlardarAlberkaaa
Slardar
Largo
LargoNefrit
55% · 207 games50% · 362 games
Tinynicky`cool
Tiny
Enchantress
Enchantressasdekor_r
44% · 149 games50% · 39 games
IoImmersion
Io
Hoodwink
HoodwinkPonlo
50% · 465 games59% · 124 games
Treant ProtectorHduo
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction missed36:24
Ilbirs eSports 26%Power Rangers 74%
The model gave 74% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports in 55:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Linaniche
54% · 18 games56% · 31 game
NecrophosTA2000
Necrophos
Tiny
Tinychempik
43% · 218 games54% · 132 games
Kunkkanicky`cool
Kunkka
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNefrit
52% · 178 games51% · 192 games
DoomAlberkaaa
Doom
Enchantress
Enchantressasdekor_r
49% · 81 game50% · 43 games
MiranaImmersion
Mirana
Ringmaster
RingmasterPonlo
55% · 80 games43% · 177 games
ClockwerkHduo
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoritePower Rangers · 87%
Series resultIlbirs eSports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3