European Pro League Season 37 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ilbirs eSportsloss 0:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Lynxwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ilbirs eSports
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 7 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 7 games
Void Spirit
niche · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
egx · 6 games
Primal Beast
Norma · 5 games
Tiny
xsvampire · 5 games
Underlordoften banned
Norma · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Miyaoo · 4 games
Team Lynx
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 27 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 23 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 23 games
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 20 games
Sand Kingoften banned
mellojul · 20 games
Dark Willowsignature
QBFY · 19 games
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 19 games
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
496 picks · 274 bans
Phoenix
487 picks · 557 bans
Jakiro
453 picks · 364 bans
Tiny
447 picks · 347 bans
Tusk
386 picks · 329 bans
Beastmaster
352 picks · 832 bans
Puck
345 picks · 846 bans
Warlock
323 picks · 189 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 62%
Hero pool strength61% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total68% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:27
Ilbirs eSports 37%Team Lynx 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 31:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Painniche
BristlebackVladikTheHtiviy
Faceless Voidbashka
Keeper of the Lightmellojul
UnderlordfortniteMan
Slark7jesu
RubickPonlo
Winter Wyvernkreker
SilencerUndyne_
WindrangerQBFY
Game 2prediction correct7:32
Ilbirs eSports 41%Team Lynx 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 24:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spiritniche
Tiny7jesu
Muertabashka
Ember Spiritmellojul
DawnbreakerfortniteMan
PangolierVladikTheHtiviy
RubickPonlo
Techieskreker
ClockwerkUndyne_
HoodwinkQBFY
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 68%
Series resultTeam Lynx 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2