PGL Wallachia Season 7. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ilbirs eSportsloss 0:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spirit Academywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ilbirs eSports
Axeoften banned
Askold · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
egx · 1 game
Team Spirit Academy
Dark Willow
Aidar · 13 games
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 12 games
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 10 games
Primal Beastoften banned
SunshineRR · 9 games
Tidehunteroften banned
SunshineRR · 9 games
Dawnbreaker
SunshineRR · 8 games
Jakirooften banned
kyford · 8 games
Techies
Aidar · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
542 picks · 850 bans
Tusk
517 picks · 370 bans
Dragon Knight
474 picks · 643 bans
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 587 bans
Shadow Demon
393 picks · 776 bans
Gyrocopter
350 picks · 583 bans
Ember Spirit
345 picks · 554 bans
Mars
341 picks · 486 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 38%
Hero pool strength63% Ilbirs eSports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% Team Spirit Academy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:33
Ilbirs eSports 42%Team Spirit Academy 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit Academy — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 34:41.
Game 2prediction correct
Ilbirs eSports 42%Team Spirit Academy 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit Academy — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit Academy · 58%
Series resultTeam Spirit Academy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2