Ilbirs eSports vs Two Move — prediction EPLS 37 · Dota 2

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European Pro League Season 37 · BO3

result vs prediction

Ilbirs eSportsloss 0:2

series probability

41%59%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Two Movewin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ilbirs eSports

Hoodwink

xsvampire · 7 games

29%

Marsoften banned

Norma · 7 games

29%

Void Spirit

niche · 7 games

29%

Beastmasteroften banned

egx · 6 games

33%

Underlordoften banned

Norma · 6 games

17%

Primal Beast

Norma · 5 games

60%

Tiny

xsvampire · 5 games

60%

Batrideroften banned

Miyaoo · 4 games

25%

Two Move

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

504 picks · 275 bans

57%

Phoenix

482 picks · 561 bans

52%

Jakiro

447 picks · 350 bans

49%

Tiny

442 picks · 350 bans

50%

Tusk

379 picks · 329 bans

55%

Beastmaster

349 picks · 831 bans

49%

Puck

344 picks · 839 bans

53%

Rubick

326 picks · 173 bans

51%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)39% vs 75%

Hero pool strength57% Two Move

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total59% Two Move

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct7:24

Ilbirs eSports 46%Two Move 54%

The model gave 54% on Two Move — the game was taken by Two Move in 18:12.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo