DreamLeague Season 30. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Imperial powerloss 0:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Cloud Dawningwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Imperial power
Hoodwink
sheep · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Ice Coke · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
Nevermine · 1 game
Magnus
Ice Coke · 1 game
Mirana
PlayHard · 1 game
Cloud Dawning
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
534 picks · 344 bans
Dark Willow
462 picks · 251 bans
Mirana
409 picks · 184 bans
Winter Wyvern
364 picks · 335 bans
Ember Spirit
339 picks · 522 bans
Windranger
309 picks · 139 bans
Centaur Warrunner
300 picks · 297 bans
Earth Spirit
298 picks · 527 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 57%
Hero pool strength56% Cloud Dawning
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Cloud Dawning
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Imperial power 45%Cloud Dawning 55%
The model gave 55% on Cloud Dawning — the game was taken by Cloud Dawning.
Model check result
Model favoriteCloud Dawning · 55%
Series resultCloud Dawning 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1