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Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Imperial Pro Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Creepwaveloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Imperial Pro Gaming

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Muka · 10 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Muka · 7 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 7 games
57%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
antoha · 6 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Askold · 6 games
83%
Chen
Chenoften banned
antoha · 5 games
80%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
SuperNova · 5 games
60%
Io
Iooften banned
antoha · 4 games
25%

Creepwave

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 6 games
83%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Alexxo · 6 games
83%
Puck
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 6 games
100%
Lich
Lichoften banned
Fishman · 5 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 5 games
80%
Mirana
Mirana
Alexxo · 5 games
80%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Malr1ne · 5 games
100%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 5 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
139 picks · 314 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
138 picks · 252 bans
49%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
121 picks · 103 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
118 picks · 175 bans
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
110 picks · 117 bans
55%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
92 picks · 164 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
89 picks · 314 bans
61%
Rubick
Rubick
88 picks · 43 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 85%
Hero pool strength59% Creepwave
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:14
Imperial Pro Gaming 34%Creepwave 66%
The model gave 66% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Imperial Pro Gaming in 32:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerAskold
43% · 3 games56% · 8 games
Monkey KingCrystallis
Monkey King
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSuperNova
53% · 12 games54% · 25 games
MarsATF
Mars
Elder Titan
Elder Titanantoha
52% · 15 games57% · 3 games
Queen of PainMalr1ne
Queen of Pain
Tusk
TuskMuka
38% · 19 games51% · 13 games
MiranaAlexxo
Mirana
little data
WarlockFishman
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct22:37
Imperial Pro Gaming 35%Creepwave 65%
The model gave 65% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 30:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracAskold
60% · 12 games44% · 13 games
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerSuperNova
41% · 9 games63% · 4 games
WeaverCrystallis
Weaver
Mirana
MiranaMuka
65% · 15 games44% · 28 games
Void SpiritMalr1ne
Void Spirit
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenantoha
45% · 14 games44% · 5 games
ClockwerkAlexxo
Clockwerk
little data
LichFishman
Lich
Game 3prediction missed24:10
Imperial Pro Gaming 34%Creepwave 66%
The model gave 66% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Imperial Pro Gaming in 30:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckAskold
43% · 49 games44% · 21 game
Troll WarlordCrystallis
Troll Warlord
Tidehunter
TidehunterSuperNova
51% · 17 games38% · 4 games
Night StalkerATF
Night Stalker
Rubick
RubickMuka
44% · 39 games60% · 48 games
Void SpiritMalr1ne
Void Spirit
Chen
Chenantoha
50% · 6 games58% · 38 games
Nyx AssassinAlexxo
Nyx Assassin
little data
Ancient ApparitionFishman
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 76%
Series resultImperial Pro Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3