Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Imperial Pro Gamingwin 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
EEnsisloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Imperial Pro Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Ensis
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Void Spirit
24 picks · 30 bans
Mars
20 picks · 50 bans
Puck
19 picks · 53 bans
Earth Spirit
17 picks · 12 bans
Ember Spirit
16 picks · 18 bans
Monkey King
15 picks · 27 bans
Mirana
14 picks · 17 bans
Undying
14 picks · 28 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Imperial Pro Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Imperial Pro Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:35
Imperial Pro Gaming 50%Ensis 50%
The model gave 50% on Imperial Pro Gaming — the game was taken by Ensis in 51:07.
Game 2prediction correct36:25
Imperial Pro Gaming 50%Ensis 50%
The model gave 50% on Imperial Pro Gaming — the game was taken by Imperial Pro Gaming in 45:57.
Game 3prediction correct21:36
Imperial Pro Gaming 50%Ensis 50%
The model gave 50% on Imperial Pro Gaming — the game was taken by Imperial Pro Gaming in 29:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteImperial Pro Gaming · 50%
Series resultImperial Pro Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3