Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Incubus Clubwin 1:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Latam Defendersloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Incubus Club
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Nuages · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Jupiter · 1 game
Pangolier
mini-` · 1 game
Spectre
Benny · 1 game
Latam Defenders
Oracle
Aretes · 1 game
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Cucahook · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
Valquiria · 1 game
Tusk
Moonlight · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
10 picks · 19 bans
Void Spirit
10 picks · 13 bans
Earth Spirit
9 picks · 6 bans
Puck
8 picks · 21 bans
Brewmaster
7 picks · 2 bans
Ember Spirit
7 picks · 7 bans
Crystal Maiden
6 picks · 0 bans
Juggernaut
6 picks · 6 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% Incubus Club
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Incubus Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteIncubus Club · 53%
Series resultIncubus Club 1:0
Series predictioncorrect