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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Incubus Clubwin 2:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Omega Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Incubus Club

Mars
Marsoften banned
Jupiter · 6 games
33%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Benny · 5 games
80%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Nuages · 5 games
100%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Jupiter · 4 games
75%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Benny · 4 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Nuages · 3 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Jupiter · 3 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
mini-` · 3 games
100%

Omega Gaming

Viper
Viperoften banned
Oscar · 2 games
100%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
Oscar · 1 game
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Panda · 1 game
100%
Lina
Linaoften banned
DarkMago · 1 game
100%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Oscar · 1 game
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Panda · 1 game
100%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 1 game
100%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Matthew · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
458 picks · 1017 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
429 picks · 615 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
374 picks · 661 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
349 picks · 654 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
337 picks · 291 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
277 picks · 388 bans
61%
Monkey King
Monkey King
268 picks · 844 bans
58%
Rubick
Rubick
264 picks · 178 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% Incubus Club
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Omega Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:9
Incubus Club 48%Omega Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Omega Gaming — the game was taken by Incubus Club in 28:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautBerna
61% · 16 games40% · 55 games
LeshracJeimari
Leshrac
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBlackSoul
56% · 26 games57% · 3 games
Chaos KnightMingatte
Chaos Knight
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanCys
51% · 35 games51% · 72 games
TuskZxca
Tusk
Alchemist
AlchemistBenjaz
61% · 15 games
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAretes
48% · 38 games
Game 2prediction correct30:36
Incubus Club 48%Omega Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Omega Gaming — the game was taken by Omega Gaming in 34:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingBerna
48% · 40 games52% · 49 games
TerrorbladeMingatte
Terrorblade
Puck
PuckBlackSoul
55% · 41 game53% · 40 games
InvokerJeimari
Invoker
Timbersaw
TimbersawBenjaz
36% · 29 games52% · 110 games
TuskZxca
Tusk
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritCys
51% · 76 games
Enchantress
EnchantressAretes
38% · 13 games
Game 3prediction missed31:10
Incubus Club 48%Omega Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Omega Gaming — the game was taken by Incubus Club in 30:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingBerna
58% · 65 games50% · 189 games
PuckJeimari
Puck
Underlord
UnderlordBenjaz
46% · 23 games53% · 7 games
Chaos KnightMingatte
Chaos Knight
Death Prophet
Death ProphetBlackSoul
51% · 87 games50% · 77 games
MiranaZxca
Mirana
Oracle
OracleAretes
52% · 63 games
Tusk
TuskCys
42% · 35 games
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Gaming · 56%
Series resultIncubus Club 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3