Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamousloss 1:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 1:2
beastcoastwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infamous
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Oscar · 9 games
Windrangersignature
sl4d1n- · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Oscar · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
Mjz · 4 games
Skywrath Mageoften banned
Genek · 4 games
Doomoften banned
Oscar · 3 games
Enchantressoften banned
Prada · 3 games
Miranaoften banned
sl4d1n- · 3 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
349 picks · 338 bans
Tusk
338 picks · 331 bans
Mirana
238 picks · 242 bans
Crystal Maiden
223 picks · 146 bans
Rubick
210 picks · 174 bans
Pangolier
204 picks · 544 bans
Leshrac
198 picks · 416 bans
Silencer
187 picks · 224 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 41%
Hero pool strength50% Infamous
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total77% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed0:0
Infamous 23%beastcoast 77%
The model gave 77% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Infamous in 31476:42:54.
Game 2prediction correct31:14
Infamous 23%beastcoast 77%
The model gave 77% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 33:18.
Game 3prediction correct30:10
Infamous 23%beastcoast 77%
The model gave 77% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 29:12.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 77%
Series resultbeastcoast 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3