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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamousloss 1:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Perro Negrowin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Infamous

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 12 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
S1RENM · 7 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 5 games
60%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
JimmyCoff666 · 5 games
40%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
S1RENM · 5 games
40%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
S1RENM · 5 games
0%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
DM · 5 games
40%
Lina
Linaoften banned
S1RENM · 4 games
50%

Perro Negro

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Mjz · 8 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
kendallx · 4 games
75%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
kendallx · 4 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Wits · 4 games
75%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Wits · 4 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Wits · 3 games
33%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Wits · 3 games
0%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Mjz · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
476 picks · 397 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
442 picks · 552 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
407 picks · 509 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
401 picks · 212 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
393 picks · 651 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
388 picks · 434 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
367 picks · 584 bans
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
352 picks · 895 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Perro Negro
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total50% Perro Negro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:10
Infamous 49%Perro Negro 51%
The model gave 51% on Perro Negro — the game was taken by Infamous in 33:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaDM
50% · 141 game52% · 179 games
MorphlingWits
Morphling
Visage
VisageHermit
44% · 50 games51% · 204 games
DoomOscar
Doom
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainS1RENM
45% · 54 games53% · 59 games
LichMjz
Lich
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterJimmyCoff666
53% · 197 games
Game 2prediction correct5:31
Infamous 47%Perro Negro 53%
The model gave 53% on Perro Negro — the game was taken by Perro Negro in 28:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaDM
48% · 83 games49% · 76 games
Phantom AssassinWits
Phantom Assassin
Tiny
TinyS1RENM
58% · 170 games49% · 152 games
DawnbreakerOscar
Dawnbreaker
Beastmaster
BeastmasterHermit
48% · 159 games48% · 362 games
PhoenixMjz
Phoenix
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterJimmyCoff666
50% · 178 games
Game 3prediction missed25:46
Infamous 51%Perro Negro 49%
The model gave 51% on Infamous — the game was taken by Perro Negro in 53:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordDM
51% · 61 game48% · 60 games
UrsaWits
Ursa
Visage
VisageHermit
54% · 24 games49% · 116 games
Primal BeastOscar
Primal Beast
Magnus
MagnusS1RENM
52% · 96 games47% · 66 games
LichMjz
Lich
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiJimmyCoff666
52% · 61 game
Model check result
Model favoritePerro Negro · 50%
Series resultPerro Negro 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3