The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamouswin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ravensloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infamous
Bane
Prada · 11 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
PiPi · 11 games
Marsoften banned
Mariano · 7 games
Rubicksignature
Genek · 6 games
Tidehunter
Mariano · 6 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
PiPi · 5 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Prada · 5 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lumière · 5 games
Ravens
Enchantressoften banned
Cara · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
DaaD- · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Benjaz · 4 games
Invokeroften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 4 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 4 games
Tiny
d1smar · 4 games
Bane
Cara · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Benjaz · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
726 picks · 569 bans
Puck
512 picks · 1027 bans
Dawnbreaker
479 picks · 629 bans
Marci
441 picks · 785 bans
Winter Wyvern
372 picks · 412 bans
Snapfire
338 picks · 163 bans
Zeus
327 picks · 380 bans
Razor
311 picks · 591 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 73%
Hero pool strength58% Ravens
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Infamous
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Infamous 58%Ravens 42%
The model gave 58% on Infamous — the game was taken by Infamous.
Game 2prediction missed12:28
Infamous 58%Ravens 42%
The model gave 58% on Infamous — the game was taken by Ravens in 25:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfamous · 58%
Series resultInfamous 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2