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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamouswin 2:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Unknownloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Infamous

Tusk
Tusksignature
Pamplona · 11 games
73%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
ILICH- · 8 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ILICH- · 8 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Yor · 7 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Yor · 6 games
67%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
PiPi · 5 games
60%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Arms · 5 games
80%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 5 games
60%

Team Unknown

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Yadomi · 6 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Wij · 5 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
drakeel · 5 games
40%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Berna · 5 games
80%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
drakeel · 4 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Wij · 4 games
75%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Robo-Z · 4 games
25%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Wij · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
434 picks · 980 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
417 picks · 577 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
364 picks · 708 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
346 picks · 595 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
309 picks · 302 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
304 picks · 194 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
302 picks · 272 bans
45%
Phoenix
Phoenix
262 picks · 409 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% Infamous
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% Team Unknown
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:6
Infamous 49%Team Unknown 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Unknown — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 18:26.
Game 2prediction correct23:31
Infamous 49%Team Unknown 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Unknown — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 41:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Unknown · 51%
Series resultInfamous 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2