Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamouswin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infamous
Marsoften banned
ILICH- · 4 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Arms · 2 games
Elder Titan
Yor · 2 games
Leshracoften banned
PiPi · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
Pamplona · 2 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Arms · 2 games
Tusk
Pamplona · 2 games
Bristlebackoften banned
PiPi · 1 game
Thunder Awaken
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
93 picks · 209 bans
Mars
87 picks · 188 bans
Earth Spirit
84 picks · 63 bans
Void Spirit
71 picks · 128 bans
Phoenix
61 picks · 71 bans
Rubick
60 picks · 31 bans
Undying
58 picks · 79 bans
Wraith King
58 picks · 59 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Infamous
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Infamous
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:32
Infamous 50%Thunder Awaken 50%
The model gave 50% on Infamous — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 34:36.
Game 2prediction missed35:27
Infamous 50%Thunder Awaken 50%
The model gave 50% on Infamous — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 48:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfamous · 50%
Series resultInfamous 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2