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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamousloss 1:2
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Thunder Awakenwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Infamous

Tusk
Tusksignature
Pamplona · 11 games
73%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
ILICH- · 8 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ILICH- · 8 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Yor · 7 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Yor · 6 games
67%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
PiPi · 5 games
60%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Arms · 5 games
80%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 5 games
60%

Thunder Awaken

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Frank · 11 games
82%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Mjz · 11 games
91%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
MoOz · 10 games
70%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 10 games
50%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
Mjz · 9 games
78%
Puck
Pucksignature
Leostyle · 8 games
100%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Mnz · 8 games
75%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Leostyle · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
443 picks · 973 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
423 picks · 587 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
367 picks · 685 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
348 picks · 601 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
317 picks · 292 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
285 picks · 179 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
272 picks · 236 bans
44%
Phoenix
Phoenix
271 picks · 388 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 64%
Hero pool strength58% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total79% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:12
Infamous 21%Thunder Awaken 79%
The model gave 79% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 32:55.
Game 2prediction correct24:26
Infamous 21%Thunder Awaken 79%
The model gave 79% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 40:41.
Game 3prediction correct31:25
Infamous 21%Thunder Awaken 79%
The model gave 79% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 41:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 79%
Series resultThunder Awaken 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3