Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Infinity Esportswin 1:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Incubus Clubloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infinity Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Incubus Club
Marsoften banned
Jupiter · 6 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Benny · 5 games
Phoenixoften banned
Nuages · 5 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Jupiter · 4 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Benny · 4 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Jupiter · 3 games
Puckoften banned
mini-` · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
mini-` · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
321 picks · 659 bans
Void Spirit
307 picks · 377 bans
Mars
259 picks · 450 bans
Earth Spirit
242 picks · 200 bans
Rubick
215 picks · 112 bans
Nyx Assassin
208 picks · 624 bans
Death Prophet
205 picks · 307 bans
Keeper of the Light
205 picks · 415 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 59%
Hero pool strength58% Incubus Club
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total53% Infinity Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:17
Infinity Esports 53%Incubus Club 47%
The model gave 53% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Incubus Club in 48:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfinity Esports · 53%
Series resultInfinity Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1