PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Infinity Esportswin 2:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Lavaloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infinity Esports
Techies
Hyko · 12 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Gardick · 9 games
Brewmastersignature
Oscar · 8 games
Hoodwinkoften banned
Hyko · 7 games
Linaoften banned
Parker · 7 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
PiPi · 7 games
Sven
Parker · 6 games
Tinyoften banned
PiPi · 6 games
Lava
Grimstroke
Genek · 6 games
Alchemist
Lumière · 5 games
Clockwerkoften banned
555k · 5 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
Pamplona · 4 games
Sven
DaaD- · 4 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Gardick · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
424 picks · 355 bans
Hoodwink
411 picks · 452 bans
Weaver
388 picks · 830 bans
Tiny
380 picks · 867 bans
Phoenix
365 picks · 753 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 520 bans
Clockwerk
336 picks · 505 bans
Ember Spirit
306 picks · 586 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Infinity Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% Infinity Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Infinity Esports 53%Lava 47%
The model gave 53% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Infinity Esports.
Game 2prediction missed26:41
Infinity Esports 51%Lava 49%
The model gave 51% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Lava in 37:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritPiPi
GyrocopterDaaD-
LinaMnz
Vengeful SpiritAdrx
Doomkendallx
TinyPamplona
MarciYor
Clockwerk555k
HoodwinkKiri
Game 3prediction correct38:18
Infinity Esports 53%Lava 47%
The model gave 53% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 31:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterMnz
SvenDaaD-
RubickPiPi
VisageAdrx
Underlordkendallx
Enchantress555k
HoodwinkKiri
TinyPamplona
MarciYor
Model check result
Model favoriteInfinity Esports · 53%
Series resultInfinity Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3