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The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Infinity Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Mad Kingswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Infinity Esports

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Hyko · 11 games
64%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Nuages · 11 games
64%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Mr.Jeans · 9 games
44%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Nuages · 8 games
63%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cys · 7 games
57%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
mini-` · 6 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Jupiter · 5 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Benny · 5 games
40%

Mad Kings

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
ArzenT · 13 games
69%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Mnz · 12 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
sl4d1n- · 12 games
75%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
ArzenT · 11 games
55%
Visage
Visagesignature
drakeel · 10 games
60%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Mjz · 9 games
33%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Mjz · 9 games
44%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
MoOz · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
736 picks · 567 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
511 picks · 1033 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
483 picks · 632 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
446 picks · 792 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
375 picks · 414 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
337 picks · 162 bans
49%
Zeus
Zeus
328 picks · 384 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
310 picks · 589 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% Infinity Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Mad Kings
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:34
Infinity Esports 48%Mad Kings 52%
The model gave 52% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 39:26.
Game 2prediction correct20:40
Infinity Esports 48%Mad Kings 52%
The model gave 52% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 35:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteMad Kings · 52%
Series resultMad Kings 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2