Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Infinity Esportswin 2:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Qhaliloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infinity Esports
Rubick
Genek · 13 games
Snapfire
Genek · 12 games
Tusk
Genek · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 9 games
Disruptor
Prada · 8 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Leostyle · 8 games
Tiny
Genek · 8 games
Crystal Maiden
Prada · 7 games
Qhali
Undyingoften banned
Luis · 9 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 8 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Luis · 8 games
Hoodwink
MonHty · 7 games
Linasignature
Cucahook · 6 games
Lycansignature
Hermit · 6 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
MonHty · 6 games
Snapfire
MonHty · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
798 picks · 564 bans
Tiny
573 picks · 397 bans
Treant Protector
519 picks · 555 bans
Tusk
511 picks · 412 bans
Nature's Prophet
463 picks · 752 bans
Death Prophet
419 picks · 861 bans
Snapfire
415 picks · 297 bans
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 872 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Qhali
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Infinity Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:16
Infinity Esports 55%Qhali 45%
The model gave 55% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 41:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClinkzAdrx
Naga SirenCucahook
PuckLeostyle
LeshracRobo-Z
EnigmaFrank
BrewmasterHermit
TinyKiri
UndyingMonHty
ClockwerkPrada
SilencerLuis
Game 2prediction missed10:26
Infinity Esports 54%Qhali 46%
The model gave 54% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Qhali in 36:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DawnbreakerAdrx
LunaCucahook
TimbersawLeostyle
BeastmasterHermit
Centaur WarrunnerFrank
KunkkaRobo-Z
RubickKiri
MiranaMonHty
EnchantressPrada
SnapfireLuis
Game 3prediction correct22:3
Infinity Esports 54%Qhali 46%
The model gave 54% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 29:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinAdrx
TerrorbladeCucahook
TidehunterFrank
PuckRobo-Z
Primal BeastLeostyle
BeastmasterHermit
SnapfireKiri
WeaverMonHty
Treant ProtectorPrada
Elder TitanLuis
Model check result
Model favoriteInfinity Esports · 60%
Series resultInfinity Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3