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DreamLeague Season 23 - Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Infinity Esportswin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
South Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Infinity Esports

Doom
Doomoften banned
Oscar · 3 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Mjz · 3 games
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Mjz · 2 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
PiPi · 2 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
PiPi · 2 games
0%
Rubick
Rubick
Genek · 2 games
50%
Spectre
Spectreoften banned
Mnz · 2 games
50%
Sven
Sven
Mnz · 2 games
50%

South Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ArzenT · 4 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
ArzenT · 4 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
MonHty · 4 games
50%
Lion
Lion
MonHty · 4 games
75%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Wij · 2 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ArzenT · 2 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Wij · 2 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Wij · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
378 picks · 352 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
364 picks · 586 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
352 picks · 542 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
352 picks · 276 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
345 picks · 336 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
330 picks · 684 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
320 picks · 193 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
312 picks · 327 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 43%
Hero pool strength55% South Team
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% Infinity Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:41
Infinity Esports 52%South Team 48%
The model gave 52% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 1:01:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingParker
46% · 61 game48% · 220 games
TimbersawTaiLung
Timbersaw
Brewmaster
BrewmasterOscar
50% · 30 games54% · 84 games
EnigmaArzenT
Enigma
Pangolier
PangolierPiPi
49% · 107 games
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenYadomi
47% · 53 games
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonDemon
55% · 53 games
Game 2prediction missed24:55
Infinity Esports 52%South Team 48%
The model gave 52% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by South Team in 44:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaParker
28% · 35 games55% · 153 games
DoomArzenT
Doom
Huskar
HuskarPiPi
64% · 12 games56% · 117 games
KunkkaTaiLung
Kunkka
Tidehunter
TidehunterOscar
43% · 49 games
Batrider
BatriderDemon
54% · 92 games
Tusk
TuskYadomi
44% · 82 games
Game 3prediction correct38:31
Infinity Esports 53%South Team 47%
The model gave 53% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 46:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinParker
54% · 18 games45% · 207 games
Dragon KnightTaiLung
Dragon Knight
Lina
LinaPiPi
47% · 26 games48% · 67 games
DawnbreakerArzenT
Dawnbreaker
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerOscar
58% · 55 games
Rubick
RubickDemon
50% · 117 games
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYadomi
57% · 58 games
Model check result
Model favoriteInfinity Esports · 56%
Series resultInfinity Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3