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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Infinity Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Unknownwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Infinity Esports

Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Nuages · 5 games
60%
Mirana
Mirana
Jupiter · 4 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
mini-` · 3 games
100%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
Benny · 3 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Jupiter · 3 games
67%
Luna
Luna
Benny · 2 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Jupiter · 2 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
mini-` · 2 games
100%

Team Unknown

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Wij · 6 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Yadomi · 6 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
drakeel · 6 games
33%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Berna · 5 games
80%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Robo-Z · 5 games
20%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
drakeel · 4 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Wij · 4 games
75%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Wij · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
406 picks · 971 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
375 picks · 529 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
345 picks · 711 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
337 picks · 558 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
330 picks · 334 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
302 picks · 164 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
298 picks · 221 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
273 picks · 280 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 26%
Hero pool strength52% Infinity Esports
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total63% Infinity Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed50:46
Infinity Esports 63%Team Unknown 37%
The model gave 63% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 57:47.
Game 2prediction missed30:45
Infinity Esports 63%Team Unknown 37%
The model gave 63% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 49:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfinity Esports · 63%
Series resultTeam Unknown 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2