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Фиджитал Игры по Dota 2. Сезон 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Infinity Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Thunder Awakenwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Infinity Esports

Rubick
Rubick
Kiri · 16 games
38%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Kiri · 14 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 12 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Frank · 11 games
45%
Tusk
Tusk
Kiri · 10 games
30%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Prada · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tiny
Kiri · 9 games
44%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Prada · 8 games
50%

Thunder Awaken

Doom
Doomoften banned
ILICH- · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tiny
Michael · 12 games
58%
Rubick
Rubick
Michael · 11 games
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
ILICH- · 11 games
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Accel · 9 games
44%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Mjz · 9 games
100%
Tusk
Tusk
Michael · 8 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ILICH- · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
644 picks · 688 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
528 picks · 345 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
447 picks · 960 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
430 picks · 938 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
411 picks · 860 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
396 picks · 867 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
390 picks · 998 bans
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
388 picks · 344 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 64%
Hero pool strength56% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head1 – 6
Model total63% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Infinity Esports 37%Thunder Awaken 63%
The model gave 63% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken.
Game 2prediction correct10:35
Infinity Esports 37%Thunder Awaken 63%
The model gave 63% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 41:34.
Game 3prediction correct16:35
Infinity Esports 37%Thunder Awaken 63%
The model gave 63% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 35:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 63%
Series resultThunder Awaken 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3