DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circleloss 0:2series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Inner Circle
Hoodwink
Fernans · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 12 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 11 games
Tusk
Fernans · 10 games
Warlock
flacko · 9 games
Disruptorsignature
Fernans · 8 games
Snapfire
Fernans · 7 games
Sven
yowaai · 7 games
1w Team
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 31 game
Warlock
kasane · 26 games
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 24 games
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 23 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Squad1x · 21 game
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 19 games
Disruptoroften banned
kasane · 18 games
Svensignature
Munkushi~ · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
575 picks · 289 bans
Disruptor
509 picks · 514 bans
Puck
381 picks · 1051 bans
Pugna
341 picks · 388 bans
Hoodwink
338 picks · 174 bans
Warlock
338 picks · 156 bans
Mars
335 picks · 573 bans
Tusk
325 picks · 241 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 57%
Hero pool strength65% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total80% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:24
Inner Circle 31%1w Team 69%
The model gave 69% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 31:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernautyowaai
MedusaMunkushi~
DawnbreakerNorma
Queen of PainSquad1x
BeastmasterPanda
Centaur WarrunnerSSS
Phoenixflacko
Naga Sirenkasane
JakiroFernans
Ringmasterswedenstrong
Game 2prediction correct18:19
Inner Circle 31%1w Team 69%
The model gave 69% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 45:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernautyowaai
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
MagnusNorma
BristlebackSSS
Storm SpiritPanda
Void SpiritSquad1x
DisruptorFernans
Ringmasterswedenstrong
Snapfireflacko
Dazzlekasane
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 80%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2