EPL Masters II · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circlewin 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
FFTSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Inner Circle
Hoodwink
Fernans · 18 games
Kezoften banned
423 · 11 games
Tusk
Fernans · 10 games
Banesignature
Se · 8 games
Rubick
Fernans · 8 games
Dark Willowsignature
Fernans · 7 games
Enchantressoften banned
Se · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
laise · 7 games
FTS
Earth Spiritoften banned
Katsura · 3 games
Lycanoften banned
elmo^^ · 3 games
Clinkzoften banned
cutie · 2 games
Dragon Knight
Katsura · 2 games
Lich
JANTER · 2 games
Lifestealeroften banned
cutie · 2 games
Mirana
raregods · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Katsura · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
488 picks · 332 bans
Bane
349 picks · 461 bans
Clockwerk
340 picks · 533 bans
Ember Spirit
322 picks · 499 bans
Shadow Fiend
315 picks · 648 bans
Tiny
285 picks · 320 bans
Windranger
278 picks · 203 bans
Snapfire
265 picks · 431 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% Inner Circle
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% FTS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:7
Inner Circle 50%FTS 50%
The model gave 50% on FTS — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 22:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doomrubikon155
Nature's Prophetcutie
Storm Spiritdualrazee
Sand KingKatsura
UnderlordNorma
Ioraregods
Bounty HunterFernans
Earth Spiritelmo^^
Winter WyvernKidaro
Banemonodrama
Game 2prediction missed29:26
Inner Circle 49%FTS 51%
The model gave 51% on FTS — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 42:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophosrubikon155
Shadow Fiendcutie
Linadualrazee
Underlordelmo^^
DoomNorma
InvokerKatsura
RubickFernans
Keeper of the Lightraregods
TuskKidaro
Miranamonodrama
Model check result
Model favoriteFTS · 52%
Series resultInner Circle 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2