European Pro League Season 40 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circlewin 2:0series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Kalmychataloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Inner Circle
Hoodwink
Fernans · 21 game
Banesignature
Kidaro · 14 games
Dark Willowsignature
Fernans · 13 games
Doomsignature
rubikon155 · 13 games
Tusk
Fernans · 13 games
Kezoften banned
423 · 11 games
Underlordoften banned
Norma · 11 games
Winter Wyvern
Se · 10 games
Kalmychata
Earth Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 2 games
Winter Wyvern
JANTER · 2 games
Dark Willow
ani-san · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 1 game
Largooften banned
Ankou · 1 game
Lone Druidoften banned
yowaai · 1 game
Luna
yowaai · 1 game
Rubick
ani-san · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
463 picks · 284 bans
Dark Willow
309 picks · 133 bans
Mirana
308 picks · 125 bans
Ember Spirit
298 picks · 457 bans
Centaur Warrunner
283 picks · 287 bans
Earth Spirit
280 picks · 414 bans
Clockwerk
273 picks · 229 bans
Undying
268 picks · 365 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Kalmychata
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total66% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed0:0
Inner Circle 41%Kalmychata 59%
The model gave 59% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 35:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kezrubikon155
Lifestealeryowaai
Outworld Destroyerdualrazee
Ember Spiritxn丶e
Centaur WarrunnerNorma
PangolierAnkou
MiranaKidaro
Rubickani-san
HoodwinkFernans
Winter WyvernJANTER
Game 2prediction missed0:0
Inner Circle 43%Kalmychata 57%
The model gave 57% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 29:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doomrubikon155
Svenyowaai
Centaur WarrunnerNorma
Viperxn丶e
Ember Spiritdualrazee
PangolierAnkou
HoodwinkFernans
RingmasterJANTER
BaneKidaro
Dark Willowani-san
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 66%
Series resultInner Circle 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2