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The International 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circlewin 2:1
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Inner Circle

Tiny
Tiny
Jing · 23 games
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 22 games
55%
Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 22 games
50%
Warlock
Warlock
Se · 22 games
41%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Supream^ · 18 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Se · 17 games
41%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 15 games
47%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
laise · 14 games
50%

Nemiga Gaming

Jakiro
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 23 games
30%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
VaniLLl · 21 game
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 18 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Covisnine · 18 games
39%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 18 games
56%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Covisnine · 15 games
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
VaniLLl · 15 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 15 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
632 picks · 422 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
542 picks · 305 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
488 picks · 588 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
474 picks · 400 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
431 picks · 633 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
355 picks · 1011 bans
57%
Tusk
Tusk
348 picks · 298 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
342 picks · 536 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% Inner Circle
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total69% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:31
Inner Circle 40%Nemiga Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 36:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend423
51% · 246 games47% · 246 games
Terrorbladeselfhate
Terrorblade
Invoker
InvokerStojkov
51% · 121 game51% · 151 game
LargoCovisnine
Largo
Slardar
Slardarlaise
48% · 335 games50% · 293 games
Ember Spirityoung G
Ember Spirit
Lion
LionFernans
53% · 172 games44% · 205 games
Rubickariel
Rubick
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSe
50% · 217 games54% · 196 games
BaneFishman
Bane
Game 2prediction missed37:9
Inner Circle 42%Nemiga Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 37:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet423
56% · 180 games48% · 116 games
Lunaselfhate
Luna
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerlaise
43% · 191 game49% · 500 games
Storm Spirityoung G
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritStojkov
57% · 439 games50% · 352 games
Centaur WarrunnerCovisnine
Centaur Warrunner
Hoodwink
HoodwinkFernans
51% · 492 games43% · 344 games
Rubickariel
Rubick
Bane
BaneSe
56% · 193 games47% · 183 games
UndyingFishman
Undying
Game 3prediction missed26:7
Inner Circle 37%Nemiga Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 42:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
Timbersawlaise
46% · 182 games48% · 59 games
Drow Rangerselfhate
Drow Ranger
Tiny
Tiny423
41% · 316 games49% · 443 games
Storm Spirityoung G
Storm Spirit
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainStojkov
46% · 190 games63% · 203 games
LargoCovisnine
Largo
Phoenix
PhoenixSe
47% · 235 games55% · 118 games
Nyx Assassinariel
Nyx Assassin
Dark Willow
Dark WillowFernans
44% · 99 games60% · 199 games
Treant ProtectorFishman
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 69%
Series resultInner Circle 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3