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EPL Masters II · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circlewin 2:0
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Inner Circle

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 18 games
28%
Kez
Kezoften banned
423 · 11 games
27%
Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 10 games
40%
Rubick
Rubick
Fernans · 8 games
25%
Bane
Banesignature
Se · 7 games
86%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Se · 7 games
14%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 7 games
29%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Stojkov · 7 games
71%

Nemiga Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 23 games
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 23 games
39%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Covisnine · 21 game
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 20 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenix
VaniLLl · 20 games
50%
Techies
Techies
ariel · 18 games
44%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Covisnine · 16 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
young G · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
483 picks · 333 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
350 picks · 453 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
337 picks · 534 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
320 picks · 489 bans
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
315 picks · 643 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
285 picks · 318 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
277 picks · 206 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
267 picks · 433 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 46%
Hero pool strength56% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total70% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:20
Inner Circle 40%Nemiga Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 38:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangerrubikon155
44% · 347 games46% · 143 games
Dawnbreakerhotoke^^
Dawnbreaker
Invoker
Invokerdualrazee
51% · 209 games58% · 88 games
Clinkzbyun
Clinkz
Pangolier
PangolierNorma
48% · 409 games51% · 349 games
Slardaryoung G
Slardar
Dark Willow
Dark WillowFernans
45% · 238 games52% · 660 games
Hoodwinkariel
Hoodwink
Bane
BaneKidaro
56% · 333 games50% · 296 games
RingmasterCovisnine
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed33:22
Inner Circle 40%Nemiga Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 46:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
Necrophosrubikon155
50% · 118 games50% · 167 games
Shadow Fiendbyun
Shadow Fiend
Pangolier
PangolierNorma
47% · 305 games52% · 113 games
Tidehunterhotoke^^
Tidehunter
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritdualrazee
53% · 148 games54% · 299 games
Ember Spirityoung G
Ember Spirit
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernKidaro
48% · 144 games57% · 132 games
Keeper of the LightCovisnine
Keeper of the Light
Dark Willow
Dark WillowFernans
41% · 220 games50% · 224 games
Clockwerkariel
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 70%
Series resultInner Circle 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2